Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the Japanese yen

There were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, which did not allow us to enter the market. Not surprisingly, even after good statistics on Japan's economic activity, dollar buyers continue to show themselves, keeping trade near the annual maximum. However, they also refrain from taking more active actions, as they fear the intervention of the Central Bank of Japan and interventions from the regulator. As for the second half of the day, only good figures on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector, as well as good indicators on home sales in the primary market and the Fed-Richmond manufacturing index, which should be much better than economists' forecasts, will be able to help dollar buyers. Only in this case, the dollar will be able to update the annual maximum. It is best to act within the framework of a side channel. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when I reach the entry point in the area of 154.86 (green line on the chart) in order to grow to the level of 155.28 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 155.28, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It will be possible to count on the pair's growth today only after very strong statistics on activity in the United States. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 154.71 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 154.86 and 155.28.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 154.71 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key goal of sellers will be the level of 154.25, where I will exit sales, as well as immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return in the event of an unsuccessful breakdown of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 154.86 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.71 and 154.25.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy a trading instrument.

The thick green line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself, since further growth is unlikely above this level.

The thin red line is the entry price at which a trading instrument can be sold.

The thick red line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself since further decline is unlikely below this level.

The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice traders in the forex market need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes.

Remember that for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, following the example of the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.